2024 Hunting Outlook: Mule Deer

Statewide, mule deer numbers appear to be improving, while eastern Idaho’s muleys—after suffering from one of the worst winters on record in 2023—are starting to gradually grow thanks to a much-needed mild winter. Winter survival is typically the driving factor for mule deer herds, and the long-term average is about 60% of fawns surviving their first winter, but during hard winters that can be significantly lower. 

To monitor herds, Fish and Game biologists captured and collared 217 mule deer fawns and 168 does in early winter in various parts of the state to track their winter survival. Of those collared, 77% of fawns and 95% of does made it through to spring.

“It’s going to take a few more years for mule deer to rebound in that part of the state, but a few more mild winters and I think fawns in particular will continue to trend in the right direction,” Fish and Game’s Deer and Elk Coordinator Toby Boudreau said.

Last Year (2023)

It didn’t take a whole lot of rubbing the crystal ball to forecast a less-than-stellar mule deer harvest in 2023 because of the severe winter that preceded it. In 2023, hunters harvested 18,329 mule deer—down a whopping 22% statewide. 

A total of 74,503 mule deer hunters hunted fall 2023, with nearly 25% of those successfully packing out a mule deer. Last year’s roughly 22% decrease in total mule deer harvest is also the seventh-consecutive year below the 10-year average. 

While it may seem impossible to have 70% of the years below the 10-year average, it’s a reflection of unusually large mule deer harvests in 2015 and 2016 (both years over 37,000 deer harvested) that spiked the 10-year average.

By the numbers

• Total mule deer harvest in 2023: 18,329 
• 2022 harvest total: 23,588
• Overall hunter success rate: 25%
• Antlered: 15,245
• Antlerless: 3,083
• Taken during general hunts: 13,267 (21% success rate)
• Taken during controlled hunts:5,062 (46% success rate)

How it stacks up

Leading up to the 2023 mule deer hunting season, Fish and Game wildlife managers knew hunting would be tough due in large part to one of the worst winters we’ve had on record in eastern Idaho. 

In March 2023, Fish and Game wildlife managers saw the writing on the wall, and proactively cut many antlerless hunts for that year. Despite a large effort by staff and volunteers to emergency feed deer and elk, a lot of animals were lost due to deep, prolonged snow and frigid temperatures that stretched into spring.

Harsh winters like the one in 2023 can potentially set herds back several years, and the department will continue to monitor the effects in the upcoming years.

Looking at last year’s mule deer harvest numbers from a statewide perspective, we see a roughly 22% decline from the previous year, marking the first time mule deer harvest has, too, been below the 20,000 mark in over 12 years. 

Hunters themselves appeared less on the landscape last year, too, tallying 74,503 during 2023. That’s a 6% drop.

Back in August 2023, Idaho Fish and Game wildlife officials noted that hunters should expect to see fewer fawns and two-point bucks in those hard-hit areas, and smaller herds in general. And while mule deer herds typically take several years to rebound from a harsh winter, they are a resilient bunch. And incredibly mild winters, like the one we just had, can significantly benefit rebounding muleys.

The bottomline: Mule deer herds got hit hard in parts of southern Idaho, but history has shown they can recover, and a few more mild winters can accelerate that effort. Hunters need to have some patience, but they may start to see signs of recovery as early as next fall with more young bucks being out there. 

What to expect heading in to this season

This brings us to 2024 and the proverbial question of whether the glass will be half empty or half full? It’s largely a matter of perspective. Hunters won’t see the big mule deer herds they saw a few years back, but hopefully, they will see more deer than last fall. 

“I think we’re clawing our way out of the hole,” Boudreau said. 

However, it takes more than one mild winter to really boost mule deer herds, and there’s an echo effect that lingers after a hard winter. 

Mule deer does that were heavily stressed by winter typically bear lighter-than-average fawns the following spring, which survive at lower rates than heavier fawns. That phenomenon was reflected by lower fawn survival in eastern Idaho than in west and central Idaho. 

While hunter harvest is one way of “keeping score” on the health of mule deer herds, it can be an unreliable measuring stick because when herds are large and healthy, Fish and Game can offer more antlerless tags. Those antlerless tags are cut back - or not reinstated - after hard winters to allow herds to rebound as quickly as possible. Dropping those antlerless tags drops the statewide mule deer harvest because antlerless hunts tend to have higher success rates than buck-only hunts.

Which leads us to buck hunting. With most of the state’s hunters focused on bucks, and last year’s healthy fawn crop that survived winter mean more young antlered bucks that will be sporting spikes, forked-horn antlers, and a small percentage will be three-points. Those young bucks represent a large portion of the annual buck harvest, so it’s likely hunters will see an uptick in the fall harvest.

As for older bucks, that will likely be a mixed bag. Fawns killed during the 2022-23 winter obviously aren’t coming back, so that void in the buck population will remain for several years. But that’s not to say there won’t be any mature bucks, just likely fewer than after years of back-to-back normal or mild winters. 

Buck survival through winter and hunting seasons can vary considerably depending on where you are in the state, so hunters can still find mature bucks, but not likely in the numbers they saw prior to the 2022-23 winter. 

Overall, mule deer hunters have some reason for optimism, especially in the west and central parts of the state. They will hopefully see a few more mule deer in eastern Idaho, but it will take longer for herds to rebuild there. 

What hunters need to know about chronic wasting disease for 2024

Hunters play a critical role in testing for CWD since there is no live test for the disease, and getting accurate and current information requires annual testing. CWD is more manageable—and spreads slower—when only a small fraction of the herd is infected.

The CWD situation is changing and management is evolving. After three white-tailed deer tested positive for chronic wasting disease near Bonners Ferry, the portion of Unit 1 within Boundary County and east of the Selkirk Mountains crest (see map below) in the Panhandle Region has been designated as a new CWD Management Zone. As of October 1, hunters within the new Unit 1 CWD Management Zone must follow these additional rules. 

• CWD testing is required for all hunter-harvested deer from the CWD Management Zone portion of Unit 1.
• It is unlawful to transport any carcass of a deer, elk, or moose out of the defined portion of Unit 1. 

Carcass transport rules for a CWD Management Zone

There are now CWD Management Zones in the portion of Unit 1 in Boundary County and east of the Selkirk Mountains crest and in all of Units 14 and 18, between Riggins and Grangeville. The following apply to all of these areas:

• It is illegal to possess or transport a full carcass or any part of a deer, elk, or moose taken from a CWD Management Zone in any part of the state outside of these zones. Exceptions for meat and some other parts include:
  • Head or lymph nodes if taken to IDFG for sampling.
  • Meat that is cut and wrapped
  • Quarters or deboned meat that does not include brain or spinal tissue
  • Edible organs that do not include brains
  • Hides without heads
  • Upper canine teeth (ivories)
  • Finished taxidermy
  • Dried antlers
  • Cleaned and dried skulls or skull caps
  • Skull caps that do not include brain or spinal tissue
• Caped animals (with the skull) may be taken to a taxidermist or meat processor, but may not leave the CWD Management Zone. The head or lymph nodes must still be presented to IDFG for CWD testing.
• Heads or lymph nodes must be submitted within 10 days of harvest.
• To see all rules pertaining to a CWD Management Zone, go to IDFG’s CWD webpage or page 96 of the big game rule book.

How to submit your deer for CWD sampling in the Panhandle

In response to the new CWD Management Zone in a portion of Unit 1, Fish and Game staff in the Panhandle will provide additional drop-off locations for heads and lymph nodes and expand check stations to accommodate hunters during deer season. Get locations, dates and more information here. 

Why the change? 

An adult white-tailed doe found dead in July tested positive for CWD about 3 miles north of Bonners Ferry. This was the first CWD positive animal detected in North Idaho. Fish and Game held a CWD surveillance hunt in the area in late August and sampled 172 deer, of which two more tested positive. 

What is Fish and Game’s CWD management strategy?

The priority is to maintain healthy big game herds by slowing the spread of CWD. That means keeping the CWD prevalence rate low in deer herds, which is the percentage of animals infected. Biologists need to know where the disease is present, and at what rate, so they can form a management strategy suited to that area.  

These goals are not possible without assistance from hunters. Unit 1 is a popular hunting destination for many white-tailed deer hunters, with almost 7,100 Idaho hunters harvesting more than 2,900 white-tailed deer in Unit 1 in 2023. Fish and Game needs hunters' help to learn where CWD might be, and where it’s not, to help keep white-tailed herds healthy in north Idaho.

Fish and Game is also asking hunters statewide to submit the head or lymph nodes from harvested and salvaged deer to test them for CWD. The service is free, and you will be notified if your animal tests positive.