How is the season shaping up?
What, do you expect us to look into the crystal ball we have stashed in a closet at the Southwest Regional Office? Okay – we'll bite.
We don't actually have a crystal ball, but we can provide you with some information from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's annual Waterfowl Population Status report, with some caveats.
What can duck hunters in Idaho take from this very broad picture of the North American waterfowl breeding population? Well, it's tough to say because there are an almost infinite number of variables that exist between a duck or goose showing up in the survey of the breeding grounds and that bird potentially making its way onto a hunter's duck strap in Idaho.
Hunters probably shouldn't take this as a harbinger of how their season is going to go, but hey – it's still fun to dive into the data and imagine what might happen in the next 105 days.
According to the Waterfowl Population Status report, habitat conditions in the breeding grounds generally declined over a large portion of the surveyed area compared to 2022. Much of the Canadian prairies were in abnormally dry to extreme drought, while habitat conditions in most of the U.S. prairies improved from 2022.
The total estimated duck breeding population was about 32.3 million birds, which is down 7% from the 2022 estimate and 9% below the long-term average. All told, the breeding population and habitat survey this year is a mixed bag across all flyways, which isn't uncommon because of the vastness of the survey area.
Hunters in Idaho might glean a little more by homing in on the survey data from southern Alberta, and to a lesser extent Montana and the western Dakotas, which is where many of the "northern birds" that migrate through Idaho come from.
Habitat conditions in Southern Alberta generally declined compared to 2022. Habitat conditions in most of the province were fair, due to below- to well-below-average precipitation between Oct. 2022 and April 2023. Two exceptions were the southeast corner of the province near the border with Montana, where habitat conditions improved compared to 2022 thanks to well-above average fall and early winter precipitation, and the central portion of the province which had poor habitat conditions.
As far as duck numbers, the estimate for southern Alberta was similar (up around 6%) compared with the 2022 estimate and 27% below the long-term average.
In Montana and the western Dakotas, wetland conditions improved compared to 2022, and good production of waterfowl was predicted. The breeding population estimate was up 23 percent from 2022, and also up 23 percent from the long-term average.