Clearwater Region Spring Chinook Update (5/12/2026)

What a difference a week makes. Throw the cautious optimism right out the window, because the bottom has really fallen out of this year’s spring Chinook run. Daily counts at Bonneville Dam appear to have peaked and have now dropped significantly (see figure below). This is disappointing news given the run has not lived up to the preseason forecasts to date. At this point in the season (5/12/2026), roughly 80% of the run has already passed Bonneville Dam, making it increasingly unlikely that a large late pulse of fish will materialize and salvage the forecast.

Cumulative daily counts (see below) of adult Chinook salmon at Bonneville Dam indicate this year’s return (red line) will likely finish near the 10-year average, but below the returns observed in the past several seasons. Based on current passage trends, final cumulative counts will likely end up somewhere between what occurred in 2025 (charcoal line) and 2021 (dotted brown line).

The table below summarizes PIT tag detections at Bonneville Dam through 5/11/2026. With returns coming in substantially weaker than preseason forecasts, projected run sizes and associated harvest shares have declined across all major fisheries. Current estimates indicate the Clearwater Basin harvest share has dropped from the preseason forecast of 2,003 adults to just 1,202 adult Chinook. The Rapid River return (green row) is now projected to provide a harvest share of 1,019 adults, down considerably from the preseason forecast of 1,923 fish. Likewise, the Hells Canyon fishery (blue row) is currently projected to have a harvest share of 292 adults, also below the preseason forecast of 378 fish.

It’s not all doom and gloom, but it is time to temper expectations for what this year’s fishery will realistically look like. Based on the spring Chinook season structure tables (see below), fisheries are expected to remain open under the current season structures for the time being. However, if the run continues to trend lower, harvest shares could decline further, potentially forcing additional changes to season structure and bag limits. Regardless of harvest share, river conditions, or season structure, anglers should expect a shorter fishery than what we have experienced the past several years if returns continue to weaken.

Fisheries Outlook

Fish are just now beginning to pass Lower Granite Dam in meaningful numbers (see figure below). Run timing above Lower Granite is shaping up well, and by the time fisheries open Thursday there should be plenty of fish throughout the system to provide good angling opportunity.

With the low flows this spring, Chinook travel times have been faster than average, meaning fish already above Lower Granite Dam are well distributed throughout the Clearwater fishery. Last week, eight fish were harvested in the lower Clearwater River, but anglers reported hooking fish as far upstream as the North Fork Clearwater River. As additional fish continue passing Lower Granite, river conditions are shaping up nearly ideal for targeting spring Chinook (see chart below). Flows are forecasted to rise by Friday, which should slow upstream migration and push fish out of the main river channel into softer water along the margins and near the banks, good news for anglers heading into the weekend.

Given the weaker-than-forecasted run size, faster travel times, and reduced harvest shares, this spring Chinook season is shaping up to be a short one. The silver lining is that run timing and river conditions are cooperating nicely and catch rates should be good this coming week. All things considered, if you’ve been debating whether to fish this weekend, the fish are telling you to go. This has become a bit of a “get them while you can” situation, with hopes that a surprise late pulse of fish still shows up to save the season.

Harvest updates and summary tables will be included in next week’s fishery update, as we should have meaningful harvest data to report from the current week’s fishery.