Martens and fishers in a changing climate

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Average global temperatures are projected to rise between 1.1 and 6.4 ˚C by the end of the century. Coupled with changes in precipitation and increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, these increases in temperature will alter species distributions and phenologies, with cascading effects on ecological communities and ecosystem functions. In this chapter, the authors investigate how projected changes in climate are likely to affect 4 Martes species: American marten, fish, stone marten, and European pine marten. They review both recent trends in climate and projected future climate changes throughout the geographic ranges of these 4 species and project shifts in their distributions under multiple climate-change scenarios. To provide insights at a finer spatial scale, they describe analyses that have explored the potential effects of climate-driven changes in fire regimes and fisher habitat in the southern Sierra Nevada Mountains in California. The authors projected that both North American species will experience northward range shifts during the coming century. Projected climate-driven shifts in the potential ranges of the 2 European species were more complex and more variable. The finer-scale analyses for California fisher populations revealed potential changes in forest composition from conifers to mixed hardwoods in the north and to mixed-hardwood forests and grassland and shrublands in the south. Increases in fire frequency and intensity were also projected for the southern Sierra Nevada population. Finally, more-detailed simulations resulted in projected losses of large conifer and hardwood trees as fire severity increased. For fishers in the southern Sierra Nevada, the authors recommend projecting old-forest habitats through targeted forest-fuel treatment and applying more liberal fire-suppression policies to naturally ignited fires during moderate weather conditions. Overall, results suggest that martens and fishers will be highly sensitive to climate change and, as with many species, will likely experience the largest climate impacts at the southernmost latitudes and lowest elevations within their ranges. Furthermore, several marten populations currently considered at risk of extirpation will likely experience future climates outside the range of current climatic conditions.

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ELECTRONIC FILE - Zoology: Mammals

SWAP (2/19/2016) citation:
Lawler JJ, Safford HD, Girvetz EH. 2012. Martens and fishers in a changing climate. In: Aubry KB, Zielinski WJ, Raphael MG, et al., editors. Biology and conservation of martens, sables, and fishers: a new synthesis. Ithaca (NY): Comstock Publishing Associates, Division of Cornell University Press. p. 371–397. [accessed 2015 Jun 1]. http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7591/j.cttn34sk