Global climate projections

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The future climate change results assessed in this chapter on global climate projections are based on a hierarchy of models, ranging from Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) and Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) to Simple Climate Models (SCMs). These models are forced with concentrations of greenhouse gases and other constituents derived from various emissions scenarios ranging from nonmitigation scenarios to idealized long-term scenarios. In general, we assess non-mitigated projections of future climate change at scales from global to hundreds of kilometers. Further assessments of regional and local climate changes are provided in Chapter 11. Due to an unprecedented, joint effort by many modeling groups worldwide, climate change projections are now based on multi-model means, differences between models can be assessed quantitatively, and, in some instances, estimates of the probability of change of important climate system parameters complement expert judgment. New results corroborate those given in the Third Assessment Report (TAR). Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates will cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.

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ELECTRONIC FILE - Ecology

Suggested citation: Meehl, G.A., T.F. Stocker, W.D. Collins, P. Friedlingstein, A.T. Gaye, J.M. Gregory, A. Kitoh, R. Knutti, J.M. Murphy, A. Noda, S.C.B. Raper, I.G. Watterson, A.J. Weaver and Z.-C. Zhao, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

SWAP (2/19/2016) citation (using one place of publication):
Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD, Friedlingstein P, Gaye AT, Gregory JM, Kitoh A, Knutti R, Murphy JM, Noda A, et al. 2007. Global climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, et al., editors. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New York (NY): Cambridge University Press. p. 749–845. [accessed 2015 Dec 4]. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter10.pdf